Re: A Gold Mine

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Posted by possum The Answer on April 20, 2004 at 12:45:58:

In Reply to: A Gold Mine posted by possum on April 19, 2004 at 18:04:41:

You are wise to switch choices, though most people would not switch. Staying with your first choice gives you a probability of 1/3 finding the gold. Switching doubles the probability to 2/3. Very counter-intuitive, I know. Think of it this way: You either stay with your first choice (1/3) or select the "bundle" of the other two shafts (2/3), obviously not selecting the one (of the other two) that has the dead burro (the one I revealed).

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